According to the USGS/NEIC on-line Earthquake Search in the first half of 2009 there were no earthquakes in M8.0+ range, while the following earthquakes appear to be from M7.5+ range — |
Date and Time |
Lat |
Lon |
Depth |
Magnitudes (mb, MS) |
Prediction |
|
2009/01/03 19:43 |
-0.414 |
132.885 |
17 |
6.6 |
7.5 |
failure-to-predict |
2009/03/19 18:17 |
-23.046 |
-174.659 |
34 |
7.0 |
7.6 |
failure-to-predict |
— The epicenter of the 03 January 2009 Mw7.6 event NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA falls in a single circle of investigation (CI # 11) at 388 km from its center where no time of increased probability was diagnosed; the 19 March 2009 event in Tonga region also falls off the M7.5+ prediction (CI # 2) by less than 200 km, although hitting the area of alert for a larger magnitude event from M8.0+ range (M8.0+: CIs ## 2 and 3). Therefore, both earthquakes are counted as failures-to-predict in the overall statistics of the Global Test of M8-MSc predictions. |