january 2004 5.5

Regions of increased probability of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes as on January 1, 2004 (subject to update on July 1, 2004). The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow circles indicate the alarm area. Two earthquakes with magnitude 5.5 ≤ M_max < 6.0 happened inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in the first half of 2004:

Date and Time	Lat	Lon	Depth	Mmax	Location
2004/02/03 17:31	47.27	6.27	17	5.5	near France-Switzerland border
2004/05/05 21:42	38.51	14.81	228	5.5	About 50 km from Messina

First event is predicted and second is missed in the Test of the M8S algorithm aimed at magnitude M5.5+ earthquakes. Notes:

• The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
• The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.