Shebalin Petr Nikolaevich

In 1979 he graduated from the Physics Department of the Lomonosov Moscow State University. In 1981-1989, he worked at the Schmidt Institute of Earth Physics of the USSR Academy of Sciences in the Department of Computational Geophysics, since 1990 in the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (currently Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, IEPT RAS). In 1989 defended his PhD in Physic and Mathematics, in 2004 his doctoral dissertation. In 2019 was elected a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. From 16.03.2019 to 26.04.2020 – acting Director, from 27.04.2020-Director IETP RAS.

N. Shebalin’s scientific interests are connected with the development of methods of earthquake prediction, statistical seismology, and seismic hazard assessment. P. N. Shebalin is the author of more than 200 scientific papers, including 3 monographs and articles in international and Russian scientific journals (Nature, Nature communications, Scientific Reports, GRL, JGR, BSSA, GJI, “Doklady, Earth Sciences”). Member of the editorial board of the journals “Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth”, “Volcanology and Seismology”, “Russian Journal of Earth Sciences”. Scientific Secretary of the Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the Study of the Arctic and Antarctic.

Main publications:

  • Shebalin, P.N., Vorobieva, I.A., Baranov, S.V., Mikhailov, V.O. Deficit of Large Aftershocks as an Indicator of Afterslip at the Sources of Earthquakes in Subduction Zones. Doklady Earth Sciences, 2021, 498(1), pp. 423–426
  • Shebalin, P.N., Baranov, A.A. Aftershock Rate Changes at Different Ocean Tide Heights. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020, 8, 559624
  • Vorobieva, I., Shebalin, P., Narteau, C. Condition of Occurrence of Large Man-Made Earthquakes in the Zone of Oil Production, Oklahoma. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2020, 56(6), pp. 911–919
  • Shebalin P.N., Baranov S.V, Narteau C. Earthquake productivity law. Geophysical journal international, 2020, 222, No. 2, p. 1264-1269.
  • Shebalin P.N. The rise of earthquake correlation range and the chains of earthquakes before large seismic events. Izvestiya. Physics of the solid earth, 2020, Vol. 56, No. 1, P. 24-35.
  • Baranov S.V., Gvishiani A.D., Narteau C. Shebalin P.N. Epidemic type aftershock sequence exponential productivity. Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 2019,Vol. 19. Is. 6. DOI: 10.2205/2019ES000695.
  • Vorobieva I.A., Soloviev A.A., Shebalin P.N. Mapping of Interplate Coupling in the Kamchatka Subduction Zone from Variations in the Earthquake Size Distribution. Doklady Earth Sciences. 2019. Vol. 484. Is. 2. P. 173-176. DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X19020077.
  • Baranov S.V., Pavlenko V.A., Shebalin P.N. Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 4. Estimating the Maximum Magnitude of Future Aftershocks. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth. 2019. Vol. 55. Is. 4. P. 548-562. DOI: 10.1134/S1069351319040013.
  • Shebalin P.N., Baranov S.V. Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 5. Estimating the Duration of a Hazardous Period.  Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2019. Vol. 55. Is. 5. P. 719-732. DOI: 10.1134/S1069351319050112.
  • Baranov A.A., Baranov S.V., Shebalin P.N. A Quantitative Estimate of the Effects of Sea Tides on Aftershock Activity: Kamchatka.  Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. 2019. Vol. 13. Is. 1. P. 56-60. DOI: 10.1134/S0742046319010020.
  • Droznin D.V., Droznina S.Y., Senyukov S.L., Chebrov D.V., Shapiro N.M., Shebalin P.N. Probabilistic Estimates of Hypocenters from the Data of Kamchatka Seismic Network Stations. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth. 2019. Vol. 55. Is. 4. P. 677-687. DOI: 10.1134/S1069351319040049.
  • Shebalin P.N., Baranov S.V., Dzeboev B.A. The Law of the Repeatability of the Number of Aftershocks. Doklady Earth Sciences. 2018. Vol. 481. Is. 1. P. 963–966. DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X18070280.
  • Baranov S.V., Shebalin P.N. Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 3. Båth’s Dynamic Law. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth.2018. Vol. 54. Is. 6. P. 926-932. DOI: 10.1134/S1069351318060022.
  • Shebalin P., Baranov S. Long-delayed aftershocks in New Zealand and the 2016 m7.8 Kaikoura earthquake. Pure and Applied Geophysics. 2017. 174, 10, 3751-3764. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-017-1608-9.
  • Shebalin P., Narteau C. Depth dependent stress revealed by aftershocks. Nature Communications. 2017, 8: Article 1317. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01446-y.
  • Shebalin,P., Combining probabilistic seismicity models with precursory information. In Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies, Geophysical Monograph 234. American Geophysical Union,John Wiley & Sons, Inc., ISBN: 978-1-119-15693-2, 2018: 173-195.
  • Vorobieva I., Shebalin P., Narteau C. Break of slope in earthquake size distribution and creep rate along the San Andreas fault system. Geophysical Research Letters. 2016. 43(13). 6869-6875.
  • Hatano, T., Narteau, C., Shebalin, P. Common dependence on stress for the statistics of granular avalanches and earthquakes. Scientific Reports.  2015. 5, Article Number: 12280.
  • Shebalin, P., Narteau, C., Holschneider, M., Zechar J. Combining earthquake forecast models using differential probability gains. Earth, Planets and Space, 2014, 66:37, 1-14.
  • Vorobieva, I., Narteau, C., Shebalin, P., Beauducel, F., Nercessian, A., Clouard, V., and Bouin, M.‐P. Multiscale Mapping of Completeness Magnitude of Earthquake Catalogs. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2013, 103, 2188-2202.
  • Shebalin, P., Narteau, C., Holschneider, M., 2012, From Alarm-Based to Rate-Based Earthquake Forecast Models. Bull Seismol. Soc. America, 102, 1, 64-72, DOI: 10.1785/0120110126
  • Shebalin, P.,  Narteau, C.,  Holschneider, M., Schorlemmer, D., 2011. Short-term earthquake forecasting using Early Aftershock Statistics. Bull. Seimol. Soc. of Am, 101(1), 297-312
  • Holschneider, M., Narteau, C., Shebalin, P. et al., 2012.  Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law. Journal of Geophys. Res., 117, B05317, DOI: 10.1029/2011JB009054
  • Narteau, C.,  Byrdina, S., Shebalin, P.,  2009. Schorlemmer, D. Common dependence on stress for the two fundamental laws of statistical seismology. Nature, 462(7273), 642-U113.
  • Narteau C., Shebalin P., Hainzl S., Zöller G., Holschneider M. Emergence of a band-limited power law in the aftershock decay rate of a slider-block model. Geophys. Res. Letters, 2005, 30(11):1568. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017110
  • Shebalin, P. Increased correlation range of seismicity before large events manifested by earthquake chains . Tectonophysics, Vol. 424, P. 335-349, 2006.
  • Shebalin, P.,  Keilis-Borok, V., Zaliapin, I., Uyeda, S., Nagao, T., Tsybin, N. 2004. Advance Short-Term Prediction of the Large Tokachi-oki Earthquake, September 25, 2003, M=8.1 — A Case History. Earth, Planets and Space, Terrapub, Tokyo, Japan. 56, 715-724.
  • Keilis-Borok, V., Shebalin, P., Gabrielov A., Turcotte D. 2004. Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 45/1-4, 75-85.
  • Narteau, C., Shebalin, P., Hainzl, S., Zoller, G., Holschneider, M. Emergence of a band-limited power law in the aftershock decay rate of a slider-block model. Geophys. Res. Letters, 2005, 30(11), 1568, DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017110.
  • Keilis-Borok, V., Shebalin, P., Zaliapin, I., 2002. Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: Five case histories in Southern California. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 99(26), 16562-16567, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2026117199
  • Narteau, C., Shebalin, P., Holschneider M., 2002. Temporal limits of  the power law aftershock decay rate. Journal of Geophys. Res. 107(B12), 2359, 1201-1214.
  • Shebalin, P., Zaliapin, I., Keilis-Borok, V., 2000. Premonitory raise of the earthquakes’ correlation range: Lesser Antilles. Phys. Earth Planet. Int.,  122, 241-249.