Previously, in a series of the author’s works on the construction and analysis of the generalized vicinity of a large earthquake (GVLE), a set of average predictive anomalies was described in details. It was shown that the physical mechanism of earthquakes of different depths is different, and, accordingly, their precursors are different also
The current task is to study the possibility of constructing of a new earthquake forecast algorithm based on the set of the GVLE precursor effects. With regard to the Kamchatka – Northern Kuril Islands region, the solution to this problem provides, at the first stage, for clarifying the regional nature of the averaged precursor effects. A later onset of anomalies in the change in the intensity of the foreshocks flow and the b-value decrease for medium-depth strong earthquakes is observed. For deep earthquakes, the dominant trend is not a decrease, but an increase in the depth of weak events in the vicinity of strong ones. The refined features of the averaged precursor behavior are used as typical patterns for forecasting earthquakes of different depths in the Kuril – Kamchatka region. A retrospective verification of the effectiveness of such a forecast is the content of the authors’ next publication (“Volcanology and Seismology”, 2025, No. 2, pp. 62–72).
