According to the USGS/NEIC on-line Earthquake Search in the second half of 2009 the following earthquakes appear to be from M8.0+ and M7.5+ ranges –
|
Date and Time
|
Lat
|
Lon
|
Depth
|
Magnitudes (mb, MS)
|
Prediction
|
|
2009/07/15 9:22
|
-45.762
|
166.562
|
12
|
6.5
|
7.7
|
outside the test area
|
|
2009/08/10 19:55
|
14.099
|
92.888
|
4
|
6.9
|
7.6
|
outside the test area
|
|
2009/09/29 17:48
|
-15.489
|
-172.095
|
18
|
7.1
|
8.1
|
M8-MSc
|
|
2009/09/30 10:16
|
-0.720
|
99.867
|
81
|
7.1
|
7.5MW
|
M8 only
|
|
2009/10/07 22:03
|
-13.006
|
166.510
|
45
|
6.4
|
7.7MW
|
failure-to-predict
|
|
2009/10/07 22:18
|
-12.517
|
166.382
|
35
|
6.4
|
7.9
|
failure-to-predict
|
According to “The 2009b Update of the M8-MSc predictions” (sent on July 21, 2009):
(i) The 15 July 2009 (SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND) and 10 August 2009 (ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION) happened in the areas of low level of seismic static outside the territories considered in the Global Test of M8-MSc predictions. However, while the first of these is about a thousand km away from any CI, the second one is just at 100 km distance from CI#29 (Nicobar Islands, India Region), which was (and remains) in alert.
(ii) The
29 September 2009 (SAMOA ISLANDS REGION) earthquake confirmed predictions for M8.0+ and M7.5+.
(iii) The
30 September 2009 (SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA) earthquake confirmed the M8 predictions for M7.5+.
(iv) The 07 October 2009 (VANUATU and SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS) earthquakes separated by less than 16 minutes and 60 km are the two “failures-to-predict” M7.5+ events.
However, it appears notable that the epicenters of this paired occurrence are next to the area M8-MSc predictions for M8.0+.
